三个观察

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三个观察 Three Observations(https://blog.samaltman.com/three-observations)

我们的使命是确保 AGI（通用人工智能）惠及全人类。

Our mission is to ensure that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) benefits all of humanity.

开始指向 AGI*的系统正在显现，因此我们认为理解当前所处的时刻很重要。AGI 是一个定义模糊的术语，但通常我们指的是一个能够在多个领域以人类水平解决日益复杂问题的系统。

Systems that start to point to AGI* are coming into view, and so we think it’s important to understand the moment we are in. AGI is a weakly defined term, but generally speaking we mean it to be a system that can tackle increasingly complex problems, at human level, in many fields.

人类是工具制造者，天生具有理解和创造的驱动力，这使世界对我们所有人变得更好。每一代人都建立在上一代人的发现之上，创造出更强大的工具——电力、晶体管、计算机、互联网，以及即将到来的 AGI。

People are tool-builders with an inherent drive to understand and create, which leads to the world getting better for all of us. Each new generation builds upon the discoveries of the generations before to create even more capable tools—electricity, the transistor, the computer, the internet, and soon AGI.

随着时间的推移，人类创新的稳步推进（尽管时有起伏）带来了前所未有的繁荣，并改善了人们生活的几乎每一个方面。

Over time, in fits and starts, the steady march of human innovation has brought previously unimaginable levels of prosperity and improvements to almost every aspect of people’s lives.

从某种意义上说，AGI 只是我们共同构建的人类进步这一不断升高的脚手架上的又一个工具。从另一种意义上说，它是一个难以不说是“这次不同了”的事物的开始；我们面前的经济增长看起来令人惊叹，我们现在可以想象一个世界，在那里我们治愈所有疾病，有更多时间与家人相处，并充分实现我们的创造潜力。

In some sense, AGI is just another tool in this ever-taller scaffolding of human progress we are building together. In another sense, it is the beginning of something for which it’s hard not to say “this time it’s different”; the economic growth in front of us looks astonishing, and we can now imagine a world where we cure all diseases, have much more time to enjoy with our families, and can fully realize our creative potential.

十年后，也许地球上的每个人都能完成比今天最有影响力的人更多的事情。

In a decade, perhaps everyone on earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today.

我们继续看到 AI 开发的快速进展。以下是关于 AI 经济学的三个观察：

We continue to see rapid progress with AI development. Here are three observations about the economics of AI:

1. AI 模型的智能大致等于用于训练和运行它的资源的对数。这些资源主要是训练算力、数据和推理算力。似乎你可以投入任意数量的资金并获得持续且可预测的收益；预测这一点的缩放定律在多个数量级上都是准确的。

1. The intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it. These resources are chiefly training compute, data, and inference compute. It appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains; the scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude.

2. 使用给定水平 AI 的成本大约每 12 个月下降 10 倍，更低的价格导致更多的使用。你可以从 2023 年初的 GPT-4 到 2024 年中的 GPT-4o 的 token 成本中看到这一点，在此期间每 token 价格下降了约 150 倍。摩尔定律以每 18 个月 2 倍的速度改变了世界；而这要强大得难以置信。

2. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use. You can see this in the token cost from GPT-4 in early 2023 to GPT-4o in mid-2024, where the price per token dropped about 150x in that time period. Moore’s law changed the world at 2x every 18 months; this is unbelievably stronger.

3. 线性增加的智能的社会经济价值本质上是超指数级的。其结果是，我们认为没有理由在不久的将来停止指数级增长的投资。

3. The socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature. A consequence of this is that we see no reason for exponentially increasing investment to stop in the near future.

如果这三个观察持续成立，那么对社会的影响将是巨大的。

If these three observations continue to hold true, the impacts on society will be significant.

我们现在开始推出 AI 智能体，它们最终会感觉像虚拟同事。

We are now starting to roll out AI agents, which will eventually feel like virtual co-workers.

让我们想象一个软件工程智能体的案例，我们预计这个智能体将特别重要。想象一下，这个智能体最终能够完成顶级公司中拥有几年经验的软件工程师能做的大部分事情，对于长达几天的任务。它不会有最大的新想法，需要大量的人类监督和指导，并且它在某些方面很出色，但在其他方面却出奇地糟糕。

Let’s imagine the case of a software engineering agent, which is an agent that we expect to be particularly important. Imagine that this agent will eventually be capable of doing most things a software engineer at a top company with a few years of experience could do, for tasks up to a couple of days long. It will not have the biggest new ideas, it will require lots of human supervision and direction, and it will be great at some things but surprisingly bad at others.

尽管如此，把它想象成一个真实但相对初级的虚拟同事。现在想象 1000 个这样的智能体。或者 100 万个。现在想象在知识工作的每个领域都有这样的智能体。

Still, imagine it as a real-but-relatively-junior virtual coworker. Now imagine 1,000 of them. Or 1 million of them. Now imagine such agents in every field of knowledge work.

在某些方面，AI 在经济上可能像晶体管一样——一项规模良好且渗透到经济几乎每个角落的重大科学发现。我们不太考虑晶体管或晶体管公司，收益分布非常广泛。但我们确实期望我们的电脑、电视、汽车、玩具等能够创造奇迹。

In some ways, AI may turn out to be like the transistor economically—a big scientific discovery that scales well and that seeps into almost every corner of the economy. We don’t think much about transistors, or transistor companies, and the gains are very widely distributed. But we do expect our computers, TVs, cars, toys, and more to perform miracles.

世界不会一下子改变；它从来不会。短期内生活将基本照旧，2025 年的人们大部分时间会像 2024 年一样度过。我们仍会恋爱、组建家庭、在网上争吵、去大自然远足等。

The world will not change all at once; it never does. Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024. We will still fall in love, create families, get in fights online, hike in nature, etc.

但未来将以一种无法忽视的方式向我们袭来，对我们社会和经济的长期改变将是巨大的。我们会找到新的事情做，新的方式互相帮助，以及新的竞争方式，但它们可能看起来不太像今天的工作。

But the future will be coming at us in a way that is impossible to ignore, and the long-term changes to our society and economy will be huge. We will find new things to do, new ways to be useful to each other, and new ways to compete, but they may not look very much like the jobs of today.

主动性、意志力和决心可能极其有价值。正确决定做什么并学会在瞬息万变的世界中导航将具有巨大价值；韧性和适应性将是值得培养的有用技能。AGI 将成为人类意志力有史以来最大的杠杆，使个人比以往任何时候都更有影响力，而不是更少。

Agency, willfulness, and determination will likely be extremely valuable. Correctly deciding what to do and figuring out how to navigate an ever-changing world will have huge value; resilience and adaptability will be helpful skills to cultivate. AGI will be the biggest lever ever on human willfulness, and enable individual people to have more impact than ever before, not less.

我们预计 AGI 的影响将是不均衡的。尽管一些行业变化很小，但科学进步可能会比今天快得多；AGI 的这一影响可能超越其他一切。

We expect the impact of AGI to be uneven. Although some industries will change very little, scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today; this impact of AGI may surpass everything else.

许多商品的价格最终会大幅下降（目前，智能成本和能源成本限制了很多东西），而奢侈品和少数固有有限资源（如土地）的价格可能会更大幅上涨。

The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically (right now, the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy constrain a lot of things), and the price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically.

从技术上讲，我们面前的道路相当清晰。但关于如何将 AGI 融入社会的公共政策和集体意见非常重要；我们早期且频繁推出产品的原因之一就是让社会和技术有时间共同进化。

Technically speaking, the road in front of us looks fairly clear. But public policy and collective opinion on how we should integrate AGI into society matter a lot; one of our reasons for launching products early and often is to give society and the technology time to co-evolve.

AI 将渗透到经济和社会的各个领域；我们将期望一切变得智能。我们中的许多人认为需要比以往更多地给予人们对技术的控制权，包括更多的开源，并接受安全与个人赋权之间存在需要权衡的平衡。

AI will seep into all areas of the economy and society; we will expect everything to be smart. Many of us expect to need to give people more control over the technology than we have historically, including open-sourcing more, and accept that there is a balance between safety and individual empowerment that will require trade-offs.

虽然我们从不希望鲁莽行事，并且可能会有一些与 AGI 安全相关的主要决策和限制不受欢迎，但方向性地，随着我们越来越接近实现 AGI，我们认为倾向于个人赋权是重要的；我们看到的另一条可能路径是 AI 被威权政府用于通过大规模监控和丧失自主权来控制其人口。

While we never want to be reckless and there will likely be some major decisions and limitations related to AGI safety that will be unpopular, directionally, as we get closer to achieving AGI, we believe that trending more towards individual empowerment is important; the other likely path we can see is AI being used by authoritarian governments to control their population through mass surveillance and loss of autonomy.

确保 AGI 的好处广泛分布至关重要。技术进步的历史影响表明，我们关心的大多数指标（健康结果、经济繁荣等）在长期平均上会改善，但增加平等似乎并非由技术决定，要正确实现这一点可能需要新的想法。

Ensuring that the benefits of AGI are broadly distributed is critical. The historical impact of technological progress suggests that most of the metrics we care about (health outcomes, economic prosperity, etc.) get better on average and over the long-term, but increasing equality does not seem technologically determined and getting this right may require new ideas.

特别是，资本和劳动力之间的权力平衡很容易被搞乱，这可能需要早期干预。我们对一些听起来奇怪的想法持开放态度，比如给予某种“算力预算”使地球上的每个人都能使用大量 AI，但我们也看到很多方法，仅仅通过不懈地将智能成本降到最低就能达到预期效果。

In particular, it does seem like the balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up, and this may require early intervention. We are open to strange-sounding ideas like giving some “compute budget” to enable everyone on Earth to use a lot of AI, but we can also see a lot of ways where just relentlessly driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible has the desired effect.

2035 年的任何人都应该能够调动相当于 2025 年每个人的智力能力；每个人都应该能够获得无限的智慧，按照他们能想象的方式去引导。现在有大量的人才没有资源充分表达自己，如果我们改变这一点，世界由此产生的创造性产出将为我们所有人带来巨大的好处。

Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine. There is a great deal of talent right now without the resources to fully express itself, and if we change that, the resulting creative output of the world will lead to tremendous benefits for us all.

特别感谢 Josh Achiam、Boaz Barak 和 Aleksander Madry 审阅本文草稿。

Thanks especially to Josh Achiam, Boaz Barak and Aleksander Madry for reviewing drafts of this.

*在此使用 AGI 一词，我们旨在清晰沟通，并不打算改变或解释定义我们与微软关系的流程。我们完全期望与微软长期合作。这个脚注看起来很傻，但另一方面我们知道一些记者会试图通过写一些傻话来吸引点击，所以我们在这里先发制人……

*By using the term AGI here, we aim to communicate clearly, and we do not intend to alter or interpret the definitions and processes that define our relationship with Microsoft. We fully expect to be partnered with Microsoft for the long term. This footnote seems silly, but on the other hand we know some journalists will try to get clicks by writing something silly so here we are pre-empting the silliness…

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