A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
打开互动全文版（逐段中英对照 + 图/公式 + 论文问答）→这是人类历史上的关键时刻。通用人工智能（AGI）——一种具备人脑所有认知能力的系统——可能只需短短几年就能实现。当我们在未来几十年回望此刻，我相信我们会意识到自己正站在奇点山麓，这无异于人类新纪元的曙光。我一生致力于 AGI 研究，因为我始终坚信，如果负责任地构建和部署，它将成为有史以来最有益、最具变革性的技术之一。AGI 不能与标准的技术突破相提并论，甚至不能与互联网或移动通信这样重要的发明相比——它更类似于电或火的发现。如果你停下来想一想，我们基本上找到了一种让沙子思考的方法。这简直是奇迹。
[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5Nd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5bcba237-d57d-4764-8aab-919e2b7dc1cc_1920x1080.png) This is a pivotal moment in human history. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a system that exhibits all the cognitive capabilities the brain has, is probably only a few short years away. When we look back on this time in the decades to come, I think we will realise we were standing in the foothills of the singularity - nothing less than the dawning of a new age for humanity. I’ve spent my whole life working on AGI because I’ve always had a deep conviction that, if built and deployed responsibly, it would prove to be one of the most beneficial and transformative technologies ever invented. AGI cannot be compared to standard technological breakthroughs, not even ones as consequential as the internet or mobile - it is much more akin to the discovery of electricity or fire. If you stop to think about it, we’ve essentially found a way to make sand think. It’s miraculous.
[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E5Nd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5bcba237-d57d-4764-8aab-919e2b7dc1cc_1920x1080.png)
这是人类历史上的一个关键时刻。通用人工智能（AGI），一种展现出大脑所有认知能力的系统，可能只需短短几年就能实现。当我们在未来几十年回望此刻时，我认为我们会意识到自己正站在奇点的山麓——这无异于人类新时代的黎明。
This is a pivotal moment in human history. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a system that exhibits all the cognitive capabilities the brain has, is probably only a few short years away. When we look back on this time in the decades to come, I think we will realise we were standing in the foothills of the singularity - nothing less than the dawning of a new age for humanity.
我一生都在致力于 AGI 的研究，因为我始终坚信，如果能够负责任地构建和部署，它将成为有史以来最有益、最具变革性的技术之一。AGI 无法与标准的技术突破相提并论，甚至不能与互联网或移动通信这样影响深远的发明相比——它更类似于电或火的发现。如果你停下来想一想，我们本质上找到了一种让沙子思考的方法。这简直是奇迹。
I’ve spent my whole life working on AGI because I’ve always had a deep conviction that, if built and deployed responsibly, it would prove to be one of the most beneficial and transformative technologies ever invented. AGI cannot be compared to standard technological breakthroughs, not even ones as consequential as the internet or mobile - it is much more akin to the discovery of electricity or fire. If you stop to think about it, we’ve essentially found a way to make sand think. It’s miraculous.
这项技术的影响规模将是前所未有的，可能是工业革命的 10 倍，速度也是 10 倍。它将帮助我们解决社会面临的一些最大问题，从加速药物发现到开发新的清洁能源，再到创造新型先进材料。我们甚至可能达到一个资源不再是人类进步限制因素的地步，从而迎来一个令人惊叹的富足新时代。
The magnitude of this technology’s impact will be unprecedented, perhaps 10x of the Industrial Revolution at 10x the speed. It will help us solve some of the biggest problems society faces from accelerating drug discovery to developing new clean energy sources to creating novel advanced materials. We could even reach a point where resources are no longer the limiting factor for human progress, leading to an amazing new era of abundance.
人工智能已经开始带来现实世界的好处，但要实现其巨大潜力，我们必须谨慎而周到地度过这个关键的发展时期。随着我们接近 AGI，需要采取紧急行动来应对可能出现的风险。我们已经看到前沿模型对网络安全构成的挑战，随着能力的持续提升，包括核和生物风险在内的其他威胁可能很快出现。展望未来，我们需要强大的保障措施来维持对日益智能体化、递归自我改进系统的控制，并解决那些随时间推移才会逐渐明朗的未知问题。
AI is already starting to deliver real-world benefits but to realise its immense promise, we have to navigate this critical period of development thoughtfully and carefully. Urgent action is needed to address risks that might arise as we get closer to AGI. We’ve already seen the challenges frontier models pose for cybersecurity, and other threats including nuclear and bio risks may soon emerge as capabilities continue to advance. On the horizon, we will need robust safeguards to maintain control of increasingly agentic, recursively self-improving systems - and tackle unknown issues that will only become clearer over time.
我一直相信人类智慧和创造力能够解决任何问题。我相信，减轻与人工智能相关的技术风险是一个我们可以共同应对的挑战，但前提是我们必须给自己留出时间和空间来正确完成这关键的一步。目前，作为一个领域和更广泛的社会，我们并没有这样做。
I’ve always believed in the power of human ingenuity and creativity to solve any problem. I’m confident that mitigating the technical risks related to AI is a challenge we can collectively address, but only if we give ourselves the time and space to get this next crucial step right. Currently, as a field and as a wider society, we aren’t doing that.
目前，我们陷入了一场极其激烈、多层次的商业和地缘政治竞赛。虽然这些竞争动态推动了快速进步并加速了巨大的好处，但前沿的进展已经超过了我们对技术的理解。世界上没有人确切知道接下来会发生什么，甚至专家们也意见不一。当存在高度不确定性且风险如此之高时，谨慎乐观是明智且正确的策略。这需要公共政策在促进创新的同时，激励责任和安全，促进关键安全问题上的国际合作，并鼓励仔细考虑如何部署人工智能以造福社会。
At the moment, we are locked in an extremely intense, multilayered commercial and geopolitical race. While these competitive dynamics fuel rapid progress and accelerate the incredible upsides, advances on the frontier are outpacing our understanding of the technology. Nobody in the world knows for sure what is going to happen from here, and even the experts disagree. When there is a large degree of uncertainty and the stakes are this high, proceeding with cautious optimism is the sensible and correct strategy. That calls for public policy that promotes innovation while also incentivising responsibility and security, fosters international collaboration on key safety issues, and encourages careful consideration of how AI is deployed for the benefit of society.
我们在 AI 领域看到的快速进展需要一种动态、适应性强且严格的新方法来测试前沿 AI 模型的能力。美国凭借其经济和技术地位，完全有能力率先迈出制定这一框架的第一步。它可以建立一个以联邦监管的公私合作伙伴关系或自律组织为蓝本的新标准机构，类似于金融业监管局（FINRA），其董事会包括独立的顶尖技术专家和开源代表。资金需要充足，且很可能主要来自行业，以吸引世界级技术人才并提供大规模测试所需的算力资源。
The rapid progress we’re seeing in AI requires a new approach to testing frontier AI model capabilities that is dynamic, adaptable, and rigorous. The US is well positioned, given its economic and technical standing, to take the first step in developing such a framework. It could establish a new Standards Body modelled on a federally overseen public-private partnership or self-regulatory organisation, much like the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), with a board that includes independent leading technical experts and open-source representatives. Funding would need to be substantial and likely mostly come from industry, in order to attract world-class technical talent and provide the necessary compute resources for large-scale testing.
该标准机构将负责制定评估协议，并与相关联邦机构及美国国家实验室合作，在国家安全相关领域进行测试。如果某个模型在标准机构确定并定期更新以跟上 AI 能力发展的一系列基准上达到特定阈值，则该模型将被认定为“前沿级”。符合这些基准定义的“前沿模型”的组织将被视为“前沿实验室”，并鼓励其采纳最佳实践，例如发布包含技术细节的模型卡、保持强大的内部网络安全、审查关键人员、为安全与安保研究提供充足资源等。
The Standards Body would be responsible for developing assessment protocols and working with appropriate federal agencies and the US National Labs to conduct testing in areas relevant to national security. A model would qualify as ‘Frontier-class’ if it meets certain thresholds on a set of benchmarks determined by the Standards Body and regularly updated to keep pace with evolving AI capabilities. Organisations with ‘Frontier Models’ as defined by those benchmarks would be deemed ‘Frontier Labs’, and be encouraged to adopt best practices, such as publishing model cards with technical details, maintaining strong internal cybersecurity, vetting key personnel, and providing sufficient resourcing for safety and security research, and more.
最初，前沿实验室将在模型发布前最多 30 天自愿与标准机构共享模型以供审查。一旦评估协议被证明有效且稳健，可以迅速进行正式化，这意味着前沿模型必须通过该协议才能在美国市场部署。实验室还将与标准机构合作，解决发布后的任何关键漏洞。
Initially, Frontier Labs would voluntarily share models with the Standards Body for review up to 30 days before release. Once the assessment protocol is shown to be effective and robust, formalisation could quickly follow, meaning that Frontier Models would be required to pass it to be deployed in the US market. Labs would also work with the Standards Body to address any critical post-release vulnerabilities.
模型评估应包括对网络安全、生物威胁及其他高风险领域能力的严格科学评估。特定的智能体式 AI 测试可以检测绕过安全护栏的尝试或欺骗迹象，并确保最佳实践，例如对 AI 生成的图像进行数字水印，以及生成人类可读的输出令牌以理解模型推理过程。
Model assessments should include rigorous scientific evaluations of capabilities in cybersecurity, biological threats and other high-risk domains. Specific agentic AI tests could look for attempts to bypass safety guardrails or signs of deception, and ensure best practices, such as digitally watermarking AI-generated images and generating human-readable output tokens to understand model reasoning.
这些评估将定期更新，可能最初每季度一次，过时或饱和的基准将被弃用并替换。最初，它们将与前沿实验室协商制定，但最终标准机构应建立技术能力，独立于实验室创建自己的保留测试，以防止过拟合。与美国政府合作，它可以促进第三方审计师生态系统的发展，以协助评估和新基准与评估的开发。
These evaluations would be regularly updated, perhaps quarterly to start, with outdated or saturated benchmarks being deprecated and replaced. Initially, they would be developed in consultation with Frontier Labs, but eventually the Standards Body should build up the technical capacity to create its own held-out tests independent of the Labs to prevent overfitting. Working with the US government, it could promote an ecosystem of third-party auditors to help with the assessments and development of new benchmarks and evaluations.
这种方法的好处在于它将专注于技术，同时支持创新并激励负责任的行为。它旨在跟上该领域的加速发展，并在识别出最大风险时进行调整，如果情况严重需要，还可以加强力度，包括在必要时协调前沿实验室之间的开发放缓。被认定为前沿实验室将具有显著声望，并且任何组织只要构建出符合基准标准的模型都可以获得这一称号。该框架适用于前沿级模型，无论其原产国或开源与否，但任何非前沿模型，例如来自初创公司或学术界的模型，将不受此流程约束。
The strength of this approach is it would be technically focused, while at the same time supporting innovation and incentivising responsible behaviour. It is designed to keep up with the field’s acceleration and adapt to the biggest risks as they are identified, and could be ratcheted up if the seriousness of the situation demands, including coordinating a slowdown in development among the Frontier Labs if deemed necessary. Being designated a Frontier Lab would carry significant prestige and be open to any organisation by building models that meet the benchmark criteria. The framework could apply to Frontier-class models no matter their country of origin or whether they are open or closed, but any non-frontier models, say from startups or academia, would be exempt from this process.
这一由美国发起的努力将为创建共享的国际前沿 AI 标准提供一个强有力的起点。由于这项技术将影响整个地球，理想情况下，这一框架将促使国际社会就如何管理最严重的风险达成共识，同时确保每个人都能获得并受益于 AI 带来的机遇。
This US-initiated effort would provide a strong starting point for creating shared international standards on Frontier AI. Since this technology is going to affect the entire planet, ideally this framework would spur the international community to reach a consensus on how to manage the most serious risks while ensuring everyone has access to and can benefit from the opportunities that AI brings.
AGI 有潜力成为推进科学和医学的终极工具，并推动巨大的生产力提升和经济增长。但为了实现这一目标，我们需要通过围绕一个共享的全球框架进行协调、使用最严格的科学方法、并汇聚最优秀的人才共同应对我们面临的挑战，来奠定坚实的技术基础。
AGI has the potential to be the ultimate tool for advancing science and medicine, and to drive enormous productivity gains and economic growth. But in order to achieve this, we need to get the technical foundations right by coordinating around a shared global framework, using the most rigorous scientific methods, and bringing the best minds together to work on the challenges we face.
即使我们解决了这些艰难的技术挑战，仍将有更复杂的经济和哲学问题需要处理：在后稀缺世界中，需要什么样的新经济模式来帮助每个人繁荣发展？我们想要遵循什么样的价值观，意义和目的将是什么，甚至人类自身的境况可能会如何改变？解决这些问题显然不能也不应仅由技术专家承担。它需要社会各界的共同努力来帮助定义这一新篇章。
Even if we solve these hard technical challenges, there will be further complex economic and philosophical questions to tackle: what sorts of new economic models will be needed to help everyone thrive in a post-scarcity world? What values do we want to live by, what will meaning and purpose be, and how might even the human condition itself change? Resolving these questions obviously cannot and should not be left to technologists alone. It requires every part of society to come together to help define this new chapter.
围绕人工智能既有巨大的兴奋也有不确定性，两者都是合理的。但未来尚未注定，我们必须利用 AGI 到来之前的这个宝贵窗口，为全人类的利益塑造这项技术。我们现在的集体行动将决定文明的下一个阶段如何展开。通过安全地将 AGI 引入世界，我们可以进入一个科学发现和进步的新黄金时代，迎来一个人类繁荣昌盛的灿烂未来。
There is both huge excitement and uncertainty around AI, and both are warranted. But the future is not yet written, we must use this precious window before AGI arrives to shape this technology for the benefit of all humanity. What we collectively do now will determine how the next phase of civilisation unfolds. By safely stewarding AGI into the world, we can enter a new golden age of scientific discovery and progress, and usher in a bright future of incredible human flourishing.