本文介绍了一个由三粒“药丸”组成的框架，用以描述对 AI 的认知水平：AI 药丸（认识到当前 AI 能力）、AGI 药丸（预期快速进步至人类水平 AI）、以及 ASI 药丸（预期超级智能在我们有生之年出现）。作者自认是 ASI 派，并认为大多数人，包括政策制定者，甚至还没有服用第一粒药丸，导致讨论方向错误。核心论点是，AI 当前和未来的能力将彻底改变社会，需要紧急投资于对齐、安全和治理。文章区分了 AGI 和 ASI 视角，批评了低估超级智能潜力的“智能否认主义”。结论是，至少服用 AGI 药丸对于有意义的讨论至关重要，而 ASI 药丸则意味着更激进的行动，如可能暂停开发，以减轻生存风险。
The article introduces a framework of three 'pills' to describe levels of AI awareness: AI pilled (recognizing current AI capabilities), AGI pilled (anticipating rapid advancement to human-level AI), and ASI pilled (expecting superintelligence within our lifetimes). The author identifies as ASI pilled and argues that most people, including policymakers, have not even taken the first pill, leading to misguided debates. The core argument is that AI's current and future capabilities will radically transform society, requiring urgent investment in alignment, safety, and governance. The article distinguishes between AGI and ASI perspectives, critiquing 'intelligence denialism' that underestimates superintelligence's potential. It concludes that taking at least the AGI pill is essential for meaningful discussion, while the ASI pill implies more drastic actions, such as potential pauses on development, to mitigate existential risks.
核心贡献 · Key contributions
提出了“三粒 AI 药丸”框架，用于对 AI 能力的信念进行分类。 Introduces the Three AI Pills framework to categorize beliefs about AI capabilities.
认为大多数人甚至没有服用第一粒药丸，低估了当前 AI 的能力。 Argues that most people are not even AI-pilled, underestimating current AI capabilities.
区分了 AGI 药丸和 ASI 药丸的立场，后者预期在有生之年出现超级智能。 Distinguishes between AGI-pilled and ASI-pilled positions, with the latter expecting superintelligence within lifetimes.
批评“智能否认主义”是未服用 ASI 药丸的关键原因。 Criticizes 'Intelligence Denialism' as a key reason for not taking the ASI pill.
强调服用 AGI 药丸对政策和安全讨论的重要性。 Emphasizes the importance of taking the AGI pill for policy and safety discussions.
呼吁写下关键分歧点以澄清争议并改善讨论。 Calls for writing down cruxes to clarify disagreements and improve discourse.
局限 · Limitations
该框架是启发式的，而非正式理论，可能过于简化细微立场。 The framework is a heuristic, not a formal theory, and may oversimplify nuanced positions.
作者的 ASI 药丸立场是主观的，可能不被所有专家认同。 The author's ASI-pilled stance is subjective and may not be shared by all experts.
文章缺乏关于未来 AI 能力主张的经验证据。 The essay lacks empirical evidence for claims about future AI capabilities.
将说服力作为关键能力的关注点可能受到争议，并非普遍接受。 The focus on persuasion as a key capability may be contested and not universally accepted.
将立场分为合理与不合理的二元分类可能过于僵化。 The binary categorization of reasonable vs. unreasonable positions may be too rigid.
论文章节 · Sections（共 15）
三颗药丸Three Pills
未服药之人The Unpill People
AI 药丸The AI Pill
卡在第一颗药丸Stuck At The First Pill
AGI 药丸The AGI Pill
做好准备的必要性The Need To Be Prepared
ASI 药丸The ASI Pill
然后，你的生活不会有太大改变And Then Nothing Much Changes For You
智能否认主义Intelligence Denialism
超级智能与全知全能Superintelligence Versus Omniscience and Omnipotence
说服（一个实例）Persuasion Persuasion (A Worked Example)
AI 可能做到但并非“被灌输”所必需的事情Things AI Could Probably Do But Are Not Required For Being Pilled
生活来得越来越快Life Comes At You Increasingly Fast
不信仰 AGI 是否合理？Is It Reasonable To Not Be AGI Pilled?
只信奉 AGI 是否合理？Is It Reasonable To Only Be AGI Pilled?