本文讨论了迫切需要对前沿 AI 能力的发展进行节奏控制以减轻生存风险，认为当前的发展轨迹可能导致灾难性后果。文章对比了主张建立未来减速能力的《前沿节奏》公开信与呼吁立即暂停的观点，并探讨了协调困难及潜在益处等反对意见。作者强调，可扩展的对齐对于递归自我改进至关重要，并警告狭隘的解决方案是不够的。结论是，虽然全面暂停尚不必要，但准备优雅地引导 AI 发展并根据风险升级调整节奏至关重要，因为不受控制的进步可能摧毁人类价值观和自由秩序。
The article discusses the urgent need to pace the development of frontier AI capabilities to mitigate existential risks, arguing that current trajectories could lead to catastrophic outcomes. It contrasts the Pacing the Frontier letter, which advocates for building the ability to slow down later, with calls for an immediate pause, and explores objections such as coordination difficulties and potential benefits. The author emphasizes the importance of scalable alignment for recursive self-improvement, warning that narrow solutions are insufficient. The piece concludes that while a full pause is not yet warranted, preparing to steer AI development gracefully and adjusting pace as risks escalate is critical, as uncontrolled progress could destroy human values and liberal order.
核心贡献 · Key contributions
主张对前沿 AI 发展进行节奏控制以减轻生存风险，倡导建立日后减速的能力，而非立即暂停。 Argues for pacing frontier AI development to mitigate existential risks, advocating for building the capability to slow down later rather than an immediate pause.
对比了《为前沿定调》公开信与立即暂停的呼吁，分析了协调困难、潜在收益等反对意见。 Contrasts the Pacing the Frontier letter with calls for an immediate pause, analyzing objections such as coordination difficulties and potential benefits.
强调可扩展对齐对递归自我改进的必要性，警告狭隘的解决方案不足以应对先进 AI。 Emphasizes the necessity of scalable alignment for recursive self-improvement, warning that narrow solutions are insufficient for advanced AI.
结论是虽然全面暂停尚不必要，但准备优雅地引导 AI 发展并在风险升级时调整节奏至关重要。 Concludes that while a full pause is not yet warranted, preparing to steer AI development gracefully and adjusting pace as risks escalate is critical.
警告不受控制的进展可能摧毁人类价值观和自由秩序，并引用潜在的灾难性后果。 Warns that uncontrolled progress could destroy human values and liberal order, citing potential catastrophic outcomes.
赞同从日常对齐转向对递归自我改进和 AI 研发自动化至关重要的可扩展对齐工作。 Endorses pivoting from mundane alignment to scalable alignment efforts that matter for recursive self-improvement and automation of AI R&D.
局限 · Limitations
论证依赖于推测性的未来情景，并假设当前趋势持续，这可能不成立。 The argument relies on speculative future scenarios and assumes current trends continue, which may not hold.
节奏控制的协调机制可行性不确定，国际合作与执行仍具挑战。 The feasibility of coordination mechanisms for pacing is uncertain, as international cooperation and enforcement remain challenging.
论文未提供具体的政策建议或实施细节。 The paper does not provide concrete policy proposals or implementation details for pacing.
在危机情况下，“节奏控制”与“暂停”的区别可能在实际中模糊。 The distinction between 'pacing' and 'pause' may be practically blurred in crisis situations.
作者对节奏控制必要性的信心可能受个人风险感知影响，未必反映更广泛共识。 The author's confidence in the need for pacing may be biased by personal risk perception and may not reflect broader consensus.
论文章节 · Sections（共 14）
目录Table of Contents
危险，威尔·罗宾逊Danger, Will Robinson
快与慢的进展Progress Fast and Slow
支持“为前沿设限”的声明Statements of Support For Pacing the Frontier
无人掌舵No One In Charge
前沿节奏Pacing The Frontier
暂停前沿Pausing the Frontier
参议员桑德斯要求暂停Senator Sanders Demands A Pause
适度审慎Moderate Prudence
如果你在做常规对齐，转向可扩展对齐If You Are In Mundane Alignment Pivot To Scalable Alignment