正和未来

概述 Overview

关于技术进步和实际影响的笔记

Notes on advances in technology and real-world impact

我一直在思考 AI 平台浪潮的净收益是什么。真正的问题是如何赋能每一家公司，让它们从这一平台转型中获得更多，并构建自己的 AI 原生能力和企业价值（而不是无意中将其独特价值转移给科技行业！！）。

I’ve been thinking a lot about what the net benefit of the AI platform wave is. The real question is how to empower every company out there to get more out of this platform shift and build their own AI native capabilities and enterprise value (vs inadvertently just transfer their unique value to the tech sector!!).

比尔曾有名言：一个平台是指所有使用它的人的经济价值超过了创造它的公司的价值。这正是正和未来的本质。

Bill famously said a platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it exceeds the value of the company that creates it. That’s the essence of the positive-sum future.

即使在我们这个有些零和思维的行业中，我们也可以创造让所有参与方都受益的合作伙伴关系。我们与 OpenAI 的合作就是一个很好的例子。我们的投资帮助他们扩大规模；他们的研究加速了我们自己的创新。这就是健康的平台和合作伙伴所做的——它们催化并加速进步。

Even in our somewhat zero-sum mindset industry, we can create partnerships that create value for all parties involved. Our partnership with OpenAI is a great example. Our investment helped them scale; their research accelerated our own innovation. That’s what healthy platforms and partners do—they catalyze and compound progress.

没有什么比我们本周宣布的消息更能证明这一点了。世界上第一座 AI 超级工厂是与 OpenAI 共同设计的，并借鉴了我们为前沿模型训练和推理建造的三代 AI 超级计算机的经验。这也是与 Nvidia 密切合作的结果，并在从模型架构到芯片微架构以及三者之间的所有环节上实现了全栈优化！

There’s no better proof than what we announced just this week. The world’s first AI superfactory was co-designed with OpenAI and informed by three generations of AI supercomputers we built for frontier model training and inference. It was also a result of working closely with Nvidia and getting better at the full stack optimization from model architecture to micro-architecture of the chip and everything between three companies!

我们还努力将 AMD 引入到 GPT 模型的推理集群中，这使他们能够加速自己的 AI 软件栈开发。

We also did the work to bring AMD into the fleet doing inference of GPT models, which enabled them to get up to speed on their own software stack for AI.

现在，所有这些基础设施将扩展以支持从初创公司到企业进行自己的训练和推理。

And now all this infrastructure will scale to support every startup to enterprise doing their own training to inference.

你可以在编程中看到同样的动态。得益于 AI，这个类别本身已经扩大，并可能最终成为最大的软件类别之一。我不记得有分析师问过我 Visual Studio 的收入是多少！但现在每个人都对 AI 编码工具感到兴奋。这是正和的另一个方面，当类别本身被重新定义，蛋糕变成原来的 10 倍！通过 GitHub Copilot，我们竞争自己的份额，通过 GitHub 和 Agent HQ，我们也为其他人提供了一个平台。

You can see the same dynamic in coding. Thanks to AI, the category itself has expanded and may ultimately become one of the largest software categories. I don’t ever recall any analyst ever asking me about how much revenue Visual Studio makes! But now everyone is excited about AI coding tools. This is another aspect of positive sum, when the category itself is redefined and the pie becomes 10x what it was! With GitHub Copilot we compete for our share and with GitHub and Agent HQ we also provide a platform for others.

当然，这个时代的真正考验不会是另一家科技公司打破估值纪录。而是整体经济和社会本身达到新的高度。

Of course, the real test of this era won’t be when another tech company breaks a valuation record. It will be when the overall economy and society themselves reach new heights.

当一家制药公司使用 AI 在硅基模拟中，在一年内而不是十二年内将新疗法推向市场时。当一家制造商使用 AI 在一夜之间重新设计供应链时。当一位教师为每个学生个性化课程时。当一位农民预测并防止作物歉收时。那时我们就会知道系统在起作用。

When a pharma company uses AI in silico to bring a new therapy to market in one year instead of twelve. When a manufacturer uses AI to redesign a supply chain overnight. When a teacher personalizes lessons for every student. When a farmer predicts and prevents crop failure. That’s when we’ll know the system is working.

让我们超越零和思维和赢家通吃的炒作，专注于构建广泛的能力，利用这项技术的力量在每个公司实现局部成功，进而带来广泛的经济增长和社会效益。每家公司都需要确保掌握自己的命运和主权，而不是仅仅与科技/AI 公司发布新闻稿，或者更糟的是，通过看似合作的方式泄露自己的所有价值，但从长期来看，这种价值交换是榨取性的。

Let us move beyond zero-sum thinking and the winner-take-all hype and focus instead on building broad capabilities that harness the power of this technology to achieve local success in each firm, which then leads to broad economic growth and societal benefits. And every firm needs to make sure they have control of their own destiny and sovereignty vs just a press release with a Tech/AI company or worse leak all their value through what may seem like a partnership, except it’s extractive in terms of value exchange in the long run.

我们知道互联网浪潮在世界上产生了巨大的正和影响，但也有一些行业被掏空，比如地方媒体。这一次，我们有机会确保这项技术的广泛传播，并赋予选择和控制权，以实现全面的正和结果。

We know that the Internet wave had tremendous positive sum impact in the world, and yet we also had some sectors that got hollowed out like local media. This time around we have the opportunity to ensure broad diffusion of this tech with choice and control that is distributed to ensure positive sum outcomes across the board.

归根结底，这一新技术浪潮让我们有机会梦想更大，为我们可以共同实现的目标设定更高的抱负。我们每个人都需要发挥自己的作用！

At the end of the day, this new technological wave gives us the opportunity to dream bigger and set higher ambitions for what we can collectively achieve. Each of us will need to play our part!

关于技术进步和实际影响的笔记

Notes on advances in technology and real-world impact