Get early access to future reviews and builds. Trying something new: I've been building an experimental agent that works alongside you on its own computer, helping with the messy parts of getting things done. If you were paying close attention, you might have noticed a few people talking about a virus spreading overseas. But most of us weren't paying close attention. The stock market was doing great, your kids were in school, you were going to restaurants and shaking hands and planning trips. If someone told you they were stockpiling toilet paper you would have thought they'd been spending too much time on a weird corner of the internet. Then, over the course of about three weeks, the entire world changed. Your office closed, your kids came home, and life rearranged itself into something you wouldn't have believed if you'd described it to yourself a month earlier.
核心贡献 · Key contributions
AI 模型现在能自主完成数小时的任务，METR 数据显示能力每 7 个月翻一番。 AI models now autonomously complete multi-hour tasks, with METR showing a doubling of capability every 7 months.
GPT-5.3 Codex 和 Opus 4.6 展现出判断力和品味，而不仅仅是技术正确性。 GPT-5.3 Codex and Opus 4.6 exhibit judgment and taste, not just technical correctness.
AI 现在被用于构建自身，加速了智能爆炸的反馈循环。 AI is now used to build itself, accelerating the intelligence explosion feedback loop.
AI 编码能力已达到能自主编写数万行代码并测试的程度。 AI coding capability has reached the point where it writes tens of thousands of lines of code and tests them autonomously.
公众认知与当前 AI 能力之间存在巨大差距，免费版本落后超过一年。 The gap between public perception and current AI capability is enormous, with free versions lagging over a year behind.
AI 是认知工作的通用替代品，同时影响所有知识型工作。 AI is a general substitute for cognitive work, affecting all knowledge jobs simultaneously.
局限 · Limitations
文章基于轶事，缺乏严格的实证证据支持其主张。 The essay is anecdotal and lacks rigorous empirical evidence for its claims.
时间线预测可能过于激进，未考虑监管或社会阻力。 The timeline predictions may be overly aggressive and not account for regulatory or societal friction.
对编码和办公室工作的关注可能忽视了更难自动化的体力与关系型工作。 The focus on coding and office jobs may overlook physical and relational work that is harder to automate.
文章未讨论可能缓解颠覆的经济或政策干预措施。 The essay does not address potential economic or policy interventions that could mitigate disruption.
AI 拥有‘品味’或‘判断力’的说法是主观的，未经科学验证。 The claim of AI having 'taste' or 'judgment' is subjective and not scientifically validated.
论文章节 · Sections（共 9）
概述Overview
我深知这是真的，因为它首先发生在我身上I know this is real because it happened to me first
但我试过 AI，它没那么好"But I tried AI and it wasn't that good"