* I. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs * II. From AGI to Superintelligence: the Intelligence Explosion * IIIa. Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster
核心贡献 · Key contributions
追踪算力、算法效率和去束缚增益，预测到 2027 年将出现另一个 GPT-2 到 GPT-4 级别的跃升。 Traces compute, algorithmic efficiency, and unhobbling gains to project another GPT-2-to-GPT-4 jump by 2027.
认为通过外推趋势线，到 2027 年实现 AGI 是合理的，无需科幻信仰。 Argues AGI by 2027 is plausible via extrapolating trendlines, not requiring sci-fi beliefs.
识别出去束缚（RLHF、思维链、工具、脚手架）是解锁潜在能力的关键。 Identifies unhobbling (RLHF, chain-of-thought, tools, scaffolding) as key to unlocking latent capabilities.
强调测试时算力过剩是未来能力提升的主要来源。 Highlights test-time compute overhang as a major source of future capability gains.
预测到 2027 年将从聊天机器人过渡到可替代远程工人的智能体。 Predicts transition from chatbots to drop-in remote worker agents by 2027.
声称数据墙可能通过合成数据、自我对弈和强化学习克服，维持缩放趋势。 Claims data wall may be overcome via synthetic data, self-play, and RL, maintaining scaling trends.
局限 · Limitations
依赖趋势线外推，可能因数据墙或算法限制而失效。 Relies on extrapolation of trendlines that may break due to data wall or algorithmic limits.
去束缚增益可能有限；在摘取低垂果实后，进一步改进可能减少。 Unhobbling gains may be finite; further improvements could diminish after low-hanging fruit.
由于专有研究和缺乏公开数据，算法效率的估计存在不确定性。 Estimates of algorithmic efficiency are uncertain due to proprietary research and lack of public data.
即使技术上实现 AGI，社会推广和监管也可能减缓采用。 Societal rollout and regulation could slow adoption even if technical AGI is achieved.
聚焦认知任务；机器人和物理世界交互可能滞后。 Focuses on cognitive tasks; robotics and physical world interaction may lag behind.
论文章节 · Sections（共 14）
概述Overview
I. 从 GPT-4 到 AGI：数 OOMI. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs
过去四年The last four years
从 GPT-2 到 GPT-4GPT-2 to GPT-4
深度学习的发展趋势The trends in deep learning
计算 OOM 数量Counting the OOMs
算力Compute
算法效率Algorithmic efficiencies
数据墙The data wall
去束缚Unhobbling
从聊天机器人到智能体同事From chatbot to agent-coworker
在其他机器学习领域中权衡测试时和训练时算力Trading off test-time and train-time compute in other ML domains(javascript:void(0))
未来四年The next four years
附录：跨越数量级——成败在此十年Addendum. Racing through the OOMs: It’s this decade or bust